Maple Finance Intelligence
SYRUP token protocol analytics — leading, coincident, and lagging indicators
Market Cap
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Circulating supply
Blended Yield
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Protocol average
SYRUP Price vs BTC Price (Levels)
Source: Token Terminal, Bitstamp — Daily close
Indicator Classification
How to Read the Lag Tables
- Leading indicator: Correlation is strongest at negative lags (variable moves before SYRUP price)
- Coincident indicator: Correlation is strongest at lag 0 (moves with SYRUP price)
- Lagging indicator: Correlation is strongest at positive lags (variable moves after SYRUP price)
Level Correlations (Log Levels) Coincident
Return Correlations Coincident
BTC Return Lag Profile — SYRUP vs BTC Returns
Lag 0 = same-day correlation. Negative lags = BTC leads SYRUP. Positive lags = SYRUP leads BTC.
30-Day Rolling Correlation: SYRUP vs BTC Returns
Monthly-end observations. Regime: Strong (r≥0.60), Moderate (0.40–0.59), Weak (<0.40)
Phase Analysis
Correlation Dynamics Across Market Regimes
| Phase | Period | n | Avg BTC | Avg SYRUP | BTC-SYRUP ret r | SYRUP-Loans lvl r | SYRUP-TVL lvl r |
|---|
Key Findings
- BTC is coincidental, not predictive: Same-day return correlation r=0.46 (p<0.001). All lagged correlations ≈0. No lead/lag structure.
- On-chain metrics are coincidental: Active loans and TVL show strongest correlation at lag 0, not leading or lagging.
- Supply-side fees are the strongest coincident: r=0.73 with SYRUP log levels — revenue and price move together.
- Correlation strengthened in drawdown: During Nov 2025–Jun 2026, BTC-SYRUP return correlation hit 0.56 (highest of all phases).
- Staking peaked at 45.2% (May 5, 2025) during ATH strength. Now at 16.9% — stakers unlocked into weakness.